At SOLSOL, we started counting down the last days of 2024, which was again unique in the solar business. This is especially true of the technologies that have changed before our eyes during the year. Join us for a recap of the year's trends and the reasons why TOPCon technology has become the new standard. What innovations can we expect in the coming years? We talked to our CEO Radek Orság about the balance of the past year and the future of the market.
Honza, marketer: How would you evaluate the past year in the field of photovoltaics, Radek?
Radek. We have seen the market move with lightning speed to new solutions such as TOPCon, which has become the new standard and confirmed its dominance.
Honza, marketer: Did anything surprise you with the advent of TOPCon technology?
Radek: Definitely the incredibly fast transition to this technology. At SOLSOL, we were one of the first to offer TOPCon panels at the end of 2022 and today they account for up to 80% of global production. We were also surprised by China, which, with a bit of exaggeration, can change production lines in a matter of weeks. PERC is definitely a thing of the past, as the closed production lines confirm.
Honza, marketeer: Do you have an overview of which technologies and products were most in demand this year?
Radek: SOLSOL is one of the leading distributors, so we have a fairly plastic picture of what is "hot". As I mentioned, TOPCon technology clearly led the way. The higher efficiency on the same surface area and the active backside make them popular for ground installations, for example. At the same time, AIKO's All Back Contact (ABC) panels are starting to make a strong push, offering record efficiency by moving the bus bars to the back side. However, ABC panels are not yet bifacial, which leaves TOPCon with an advantage in some installations.
Panels: AIKO sets the trend with ABC technology
Honza, marketeer: You are right that AIKO has really attracted attention with its technology. How does that translate into sales?
Radek: AIKO has a record of efficiency, and it has prepared a hilarious presentation of the technology. Thanks to this combination, it has leapfrogged all our other brands in sales. It's also the first time we've ever had end customers asking for a specific brand of panel. AIKO, in short, sets the direction. We are watching closely to see how other manufacturers try to jump on this trend. For our clients, it is positive that production is responding to the high demand - the lines for ABC panels have taken off in a big way, and as a result, their purchase price is coming down.
Our AIKO portfolio can be found here.
Honza, marketeer: Let's move on from panels. What are the trends in inverters?
Radek: As far as inverters are concerned, this year has been dominated by solutions with optimizers. These improve shading efficiency, allow the combination of different panel types and increase installation safety. This trend is a response to new requirements of Czech legislation, for example the obligation of DC disconnectors for generating plants with a capacity of 10 - 50 kWp. The emergence of all-in-one solutions for medium-sized commercial plants is also an interesting phenomenon. In our country it is represented, for example, by the WIT series inverters from Growatt, which can be very flexibly adapted to the changing needs of a particular company.
Safety and modularity is the theme
Honza, the marketeer: And what trends have we seen in batteries?
Radek: The most significant shifts I have seen in batteries have been in the area of safety. For example, Growatt added self-extinguishing capsules, Huawei introduced a new Luna model with multi-level protection. A separate chapter is modular battery solutions that allow easy capacity increases even after several years thanks to advanced management of individual modules. With most historically supplied batteries, this option falls away after about 18 months as conventional batteries degrade. The new battery modules have their own management, so the owner can increase according to his current needs even after several years.
Honza, the marketeer: And how are the battery sizes?
Radek: With the decline of the residential market, the focus is obviously shifting to large battery storage systems that will be able to compensate for grid power surpluses and shortages in the future. In the next few years, they will become more important and it will be about providing power balance services. This is what we are trying to respond to in our offering with the Norwegian Pixii, which is an intelligent storage solution with virtually unlimited capacity.
Honza, marketer: If you were to think about the next 5 years with your knowledge of the market and technology, where are the trends in PV going in the medium term?
Radek: I don't have a crystal ball, but in the future I expect the advent of tandem modules based on TOPCON heterojunction, where perovskite cells could finally be commercialized around 2026. Cell efficiencies in the roadmaps of their manufacturers are rising towards 30%, which would mean breaking through the mythical 27% panel efficiency threshold.
Honza, the marketeer: What about the back-contact technologies you were talking about?
Radek: As the classic would say - you can't stop progress. Back-contact manufacturers will inevitably have to come up with new ways of modifying cells in the coming years to keep this technology at the forefront. Prices are also a separate chapter, as they affect technological progress. Over the past five years, panel technology prices have been on a roller coaster ride. At the moment, they are often below the cost of production, which slows down the introduction of some innovations. However, I expect prices to return to a more sustainable level once the market and supply chain consolidate, which should allow for further technological development.
Honza, Marketeer: Radek, thanks for the interview and your insight. Enjoy, if possible, a peaceful advent.